Opinion polls often provide a pretty accurate snapshot of the electorate, but history suggests it might be wise to take recent results with more than a few grains of salt.
Three decades ago, a similar script was playing out in Ottawa as it is today, although the roles were reversed. In 1993, it was the Conservatives that had ruled the country for the previous decade, but found themselves staring up at the Liberals in opinion polls as they entered an election year.
Seeing the writing on the wall, then-Prime Minister Brian Mulroney announced his retirement from politics, setting the stage for a leadership race that was won by cabinet minister Kim Campbell. Campbell’s victory, which made her Canada’s first, and only, female prime minister, also gave the Conservatives a significant bump in the polls, with her personal popularity well above that of Liberal Leader Jean Chrétien.
It was quite another story come the fall election, however, as the Conservatives, which had won majorities with 211 and 169 seats in the previous two elections, respectively, were reduced to just two seats. Campbell, whose summertime approval rating was higher than any prime minister in the previous 30 years, didn’t even retain her Vancouver seat.
I raise this bit of Canadian history because several reputable opinion polls are showing the Liberals and Conservatives in a virtual dead heat these days, which is a stark difference from just a couple of months ago.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s announcement that he’s stepping down once a new leader is chosen has clearly been the catalyst for that turnaround, but I’m dubious this recent bump is sustainable. The events of three decades ago would suggest it isn’t, although I must admit there are some differences this time around.
The 1993 saga played out over most of the year, allowing Campbell’s honeymoon period to disappear, whereas a new Liberal leader will almost certainly go right into an election campaign.
Should Mark Carney emerge victorious this weekend, he will also do his best to portray himself as an outsider, which seems like a stretch given his connection to Trudeau, whereas Chrystia Freeland was born to play the Campbell role.
Another difference between 1993 and today is the presence of Donald Trump, specifically who Canadian voters think would be the best prime minister to deal with the unpredictable antics of the U.S. president, and if Carney can squeeze any political mileage out of painting Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre as a Trump worshipper.
There are differences, to be sure, but history is a good teacher and what that 1993 election taught us is that once voters are handed a ballot, they tend to reflect on the last several years, not just the past couple of months. The debacle of 1993 also reinforced the notion that every government has an expiry date, which in recent Canadian history is about a maximum of 10 years.
The opinion polls show that the Liberals have already got a boost by shedding a leader who had become increasingly unpopular, but I’m dubious that bump will still be there once Canadians go to the polls.
